Aug 30, 2011

Markets Wedging Again

I'm not too happy with the action I'm seeing in stock market indices in last three days. After distribution day we got a two day rally on lower and lower volume, which is a wedging rally. In general, this is not a good sign as it shows the lack of demand on the way up. However, things are not that bad after all as volatility has finally decreased. Markets cannot advance on large price volatility as this brings up sellers. The modest volume means there is little selling going on right now, but for a sustained move we definitely need at least one major accumulation day, which we have not seen by now. I'm still afraid that what we're seeing is a bear market rally, which could still go higher, considering how oversold the market was two weeks ago and a pretty large selling climax. I'm going to monitor markets very closely every day in search for signs of distribution, which would confirm this view. However, a confirmed follow through day could quickly reverse the picture upside down. So, for now I'll keep my market signals intact and just wait for any confirmation.



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