Nov 29, 2011

A Reflex Rally

A brief update on the recent action in stocks and gold.

Yesterday stock market indices completed a strong swing low, which is a clear indication that a new short term uptrend has started. I want to stress SHORT TERM as I fully expect the current cycle will top sometime in December. I'm not sure whether we may start making lower lows this year, but January 2012 should be a strong down month. Anyway, stock market is now on neutral signal and I doubt we will get a decent buy signal before spring 2012.


Hard to say what gold is up to. It completed a swing low yesterday also, but today's lack of follow through suggests the current cycle should top below the recent, which means that lower prices may be ahead. We're still waiting for the break of the descending trendline or MA150. A break that should determine gold's trajectory for another quarter or so.

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