I reviewed my buy signal on Nasdaq Composite index from the last week and noticed that I have made a mistake. I was too quick thinking that a minor accumulation day could be counted as a follow through day. A 15% plus corrections require more time and stronger accumulation than we just saw. I've been consufed at ambiguous signal I was getting from the market. But now I think everything is on the right track again. Today's down day trigerred a neutral signal on its own and luckily, no big damage has been done to my portfolio. I'm not buying any stock until we get a real buy signal. I will use any rally to sell my TNH long as I still believe this bear market has more downside to go.
To gold. Looks toppy, for sure. Double tops are generally pretty reliable patterns and volume pattern in GLD supports that view. Note that I've been speculating about three possible scenarios for gold about
a week ago. It is now clear that the third (no new highs) scenario is off the table. However, the triangle consolidation case is not yet off the table as you might suppose. I was again too careless thinking that triangle consolidation could only be in the form of symmetrical triangle. Again, this is not true. Gold rarely conforms to exact technical patterns. In my opinion it could still consolidate here in some sort of ascending triangle consolidation. The selling today was not impressive and I think there is a chance that gold cosolidates and makes another 15 to 20% push higher. A more negative scenario would be a steady drift higher. In this case I think the percentage gain will be much lower. Any sell-off day would increase odds for the double top case. So there is plenty of ambiguity in gold also. Enough speculation, though. My plan is to wait for a couple more days for additional signals that would confirm any view. For now I'm keeping my stop below the last swing at about 166 on GLD and proclaiming neutral signal on gold.
To gold. Looks toppy, for sure. Double tops are generally pretty reliable patterns and volume pattern in GLD supports that view. Note that I've been speculating about three possible scenarios for gold about a week ago. It is now clear that the third (no new highs) scenario is off the table. However, the triangle consolidation case is not yet off the table as you might suppose. I was again too careless thinking that triangle consolidation could only be in the form of symmetrical triangle. Again, this is not true. Gold rarely conforms to exact technical patterns. In my opinion it could still consolidate here in some sort of ascending triangle consolidation. The selling today was not impressive and I think there is a chance that gold cosolidates and makes another 15 to 20% push higher. A more negative scenario would be a steady drift higher. In this case I think the percentage gain will be much lower. Any sell-off day would increase odds for the double top case. So there is plenty of ambiguity in gold also. Enough speculation, though. My plan is to wait for a couple more days for additional signals that would confirm any view. For now I'm keeping my stop below the last swing at about 166 on GLD and proclaiming neutral signal on gold.
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