What's The Next Move

I don't have much to say today, just a little prediction for the next week. I noticed in the past that last two or three days into the holidays are usually down days on moderate volume. This is easily understood, as traders try to reduce the risk and liquidate positions before holidays. The same happened last week before the Labor Day in the United States. I also noticed several times that most often the first day after holidays determines the trend for the next couple of weeks. Traders usually return to the market not to fight but to ride the current trend. The current short term trend is obviously up, so I hope Tueasday will be an accumulation day, which would be a very positive intermediate term sign. Let's wait and see.

However, even if we get a follow through day tomorrow, my personal outlook on markets is bad. I've been shaken out of HANS, TNH is performing poorly, there are virtually no real leaders and my top watch list is comprised of three stocks only. My past experience dictates that real uptrends can develop when my watch list extends to fifteen or above. So, whatever you do, I suggest you be cautious. High volatility could continue for weeks until more leaders develop constructive bases. At this stage the only buys made should be truly the best stocks possible. In bull markets four out of five stocks will go up. In bear markets almost everything will go down. In high volatility choppy markets, as is right now, your chances of scoring are 50:50 even with the best merchandise as most stocks tend to display violent swings in both directions.