End Of Accumulation Phase

I would like to continue a stock market discussion from the previous week. Stock market is in a runaway move in my opinion. Once again I've prepared three charts from previous runaway moves and marked three distinct phases on each of them. I won't explain each separately. The point is that runaway moves typically start with a long accumulation phase. The slope of this phase is very steep and there are almost no down days. It continues with the distribution phase, when market starts to behave choppier. Momentum is mildly positive and money flow hardly ever gets into overbought readings. This phase is typically shorter from the first, but there have been exceptions. However, there are virtually no exceptions to the final, climax top phase. This is almost always a quick, steep 1 to 3 day breakout that marks the end of the bull market. See charts below for examples.



Let's now extrapolate these findings to the current market. I guess a pretty large distribution day on Thursday could mark the end of accumulation phase. There was no follow through to the downside on Friday, so more downside could take place next week. One thing that still bugs me is that I've completely lost my cycle count. We are on week 9 of the 9-week cycle and thus already overdue. Although I wish for further upside I'd also like to see a quick drop out of the green wedge that would mark the cycle low. Another thing that concerns me is the extreme slope. I speculate that market could now go into distribution phase, followed by climax phase. But this is just this. Speculation. Such an extended move into resistance could very well top right here. We'll have to wait at least another week and see. If indexes dropy in a slow, controlled fashion, there is a high chance of the orange channel to take place. If on the other hand sell off days start to pile in, chances are better for a final top in a week or two.